The Problems of Prediction, Part 2

Our overconfidence in our predictive abilities can be traced to the simple fact that the universe is infinitely complex.

By David A. J. Reynolds | February 21, 2018 | Cognition, Economics, Government, Philosophy, Prediction, Society | Brexit, Britain, Certainty, Comprehension, Cosmology, Data, Economics, Elections, Error, Forecasting, Foresight, Freakonomics, Genetic Engineering, Hanna Arendt, Hubris, Ignorance, Infinity, Information, Knowledge, Limitations, Manipulations, Models, Neuroscience, Over-confidence, Philip Tetlock, Polling, Prediction, Reality, Statistics, Stephen Dubner, The Brain, The Universe, Truth, UK, Understanding, Unknowns, Unpredictability, US

The Problems of Prediction, Part 1

Our technological mindset makes us more inclined to predict and gather ever-more data in service of prediction. We misunderstand the information we have, can’t know the information we don’t have, and yet we are more confident than ever.

By David A. J. Reynolds | January 24, 2018 | Economics, Government, Philosophy, Prediction, Society | Abstraction, Alfred North Whitehead, Belief, Britain, Comprehension, Data, Elites, Error, EU, Euro, Experts, Fallacies, Forecasting, Hubris, Information, Knowledge, Limitations, Michael Gove, Nassim Taleb, Over-confidence, Paul Slovic, Philip Tetlock, Prediction, Statistics, Truth, Understanding, Unknowns

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